Turkish prime minister poised for third election victory
ISTANBUL, June 11, 2011 (AFP) Turkey's prime minister and his Islamist-rooted party are poised to win a third straight term in power on Sunday thanks to enduring economic and political stability.
"For middle and lower classes, (Prime Minister Recep Tayyip) Erdogan represents economic and political stability, which the opposition seems unable to sustain," said economist Ahmet Insel.
According to pollsters, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) is expected to cruise to victory with between 45 and 50 percent of the vote, enough to form its third one-party government since 2002.
It took 47 percent in 2007 parliamentary elections.
The AKP's roaring electoral machine has been in action for weeks, with buses plying the streets of major cities blaring the party's campaign songs and giant posters of the 57-year-old Erdogan adorning buildings in downtown Istanbul.
With the slogan "Target 2023," the party has set ambitious goals for the 100th anniversary of the modern Turkish Republic.
These include reaching a place among the world's 10 largest economies, with a per capita income of $25,000 compared with today's $10,000 (7,000 euros), and the building of a canal to bypass the Bosphorus Strait, the world's fourth busiest waterway.
The slogan cleverly steals the thunder of the main opposition centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP), which was established by the republic's founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and is thought to stand a chance of increasing its vote from 20 to 30 percent.
Moreover, the AKP is running against a splintered opposition, which also includes the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), expected to exceed 10 percent, and Kurdish-backed independent candidates who are eyeing some 30 seats in the 550-seat parliament.
"The opposition is not credible," Insel said. "It cannot position itself as an alternative capable of governing without a coalition government. And Turks had very bad memories of coalition governments in 1990s."
Meanwhile, the AKP can point to a glowing economic record.
Turkey's gross domestic product grew by a spectacular 8.9 percent in 2010, outpacing global recovery, and the party has presided over the doubling of per capita GDP since coming to power in 2002.
"The middle class enjoys the continued disinflation and the economic growth," Insel said, noting that inflation stands at about six percent compared with 15 to 20 percent four years ago.
With Erdogan's win considered a foregone conclusion, questions linger over whether the AKP will secure a large enough majority in parliament to enable it to forge ahead with rewriting the constitution, a legacy of a 1980 military coup.
Scepticism however has greeted Erdogan's pledge for a more liberal constitution: The former Islamist has refused to say what the reforms would entail, while favouring a shift to a presidential system -- presumably with himself at the helm.
Erdogan, once the driving force of democracy reforms sought by the European Union, has stoked suspicions over his future path with a growing intolerance to criticism, routine attacks on the media, and restrictions on the Internet.
Moreover, dozens of journalists have landed in jail as part of massive probes into alleged coup plots, hailed initially as a long-awaited move to curb the army after its toppling of four governments in the past.
In Sunday's poll, the AKP is seeking at least 330 seats in the 550-member house, which would allow it to amend the constitution without the support of other parties and put the text to a referendum.
A two-thirds majority of 367 seats would enable it to pass the amendments unilaterally.
